In a blow to Obama Presidential Center backers, a federal court judge has just given the green light to a lawsuit challenging Chicago's Jackson Park location.
With a week to go until Chicago's mayoral election, I asked David Axelrod, a longtime Democratic consultant who's now running the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics, to read the tea leaves and tell us what to expect. Like other experts, he doesn't think any one candidate will win more than 50 percent of the vote to take the mayor's office next week. Rather, he thinks, the two top vote-getters will face each other in an April 2 runoff. His bet? Toni Preckwinkle likely will secure one of the two spots.
And as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a bill raising the state's minimum wage into law Tuesday morning, his administration also was undertaking a review of the Aurora shooting, including the acknowledgment that the state wrongly issued the shooter a gun permit five years ago.
Welcome to The Spin.
Axelrod predicts runoff between Preckwinkle and … someone else
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Jose M. Osorio/Chicago Tribune 2018
(Jose M. Osorio/Chicago Tribune 2018)
David Axelrod says the ripple effect of a federal investigation at City Hall has been one of the central issues in the mayor's race. He's picking Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to secure one of the two runoff spots thanks to name recognition and endorsements from the powerful Chicago Teachers Union and the Service Employees Union International.
Preckwinkle factor: "I think Preckwinkle started with some advantages and she still has some advantages, but she's been damaged in the process," he said, referring to the federal attempted extortion charge lodged against Ald. Edward Burke. Among other things, the longtime alderman allegedly solicited a donation for Preckwinkle out of someone trying to do business in his ward. Preckwinkle has not been accused of wrongdoing and has maintained she was not aware of the solicitation.
Second spot? Axelrod says Bill Daley, who like Axelrod served in the Obama White House, and Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza both have an excellent shot of advancing. But he said he can't count out former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot, City Hall veteran Gery Chico and millionaire philanthropist Willie Wilson.
"We don't know what the Chance the Rapper effect will be on Amara Enyia," he says of the public policy consultant. And he adds: "The thing about this race, all the margins and polling you've seen, no outcome would be surprising other than Neal Sales-Griffin being in the runoff," he said of a candidate who's been virtually invisible, rarely showing up to candidate forums and holding little to no press events.
What to expect Feb. 26: Who makes it into the runoff may not even be determined on election day, especially those candidates who are ahead by a few hundred votes, he says. Absentee votes — specifically those postmarked on election day but don't arrive until a few days after — in this case could decide or at least cement who's in and who's out.
The number: Axelrod says that the top two vote-getters must remember that a majority of voters went with someone else.
Runoff debate: Axelrod says he's so certain of a runoff in the mayor's race that his Institute of Politics has scheduled a March 13 debate for the two mayoral finalists to discuss violence and crime in the city. Some high-profile panelists will question the candidates, including Liz Dozier, a former Chicago Public Schools principal and founder and CEO of Chicago Beyond; Charles Ramsey, one-time deputy superintendent at the Chicago Police Department and the former police commissioner of Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.; and Alex Kotlowitz, journalist, author and documentarian.
Side note: He's not working for any of the candidates, though he said he counts "several of them as friends."
*You can read about the final stretch of the mayor's race here and get to know the candidates here.
Susana Mendoza's career propelled by alliances with old-school Democrats, opportunity
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Jose M. Osorio/Chicago Tribune 2018
(Jose M. Osorio/Chicago Tribune 2018)
From the Tribune's Ray Long and Rick Pearson: "Susana Mendoza's TV ads in the mayor's race focus on her personal story: a skilled soccer player who overcame gender bias to play with the boys after her family fled Little Village's crime for the safety of the suburbs. Mendoza's political story is a little more Chicago conventional: Her steady ascension has been helped in part by forming alliances with a variety of old-school Democratic establishment figures, and in some cases breaking those ties when it was beneficial to her career." Read the story here.
In a final televised debate, Mendoza comes out swinging. Read Bill Ruthhart and Gregory Pratt's piece in the Tribune here.
In other election news, the weirdly competitive race for city treasurer: Read Gregory Pratt's story here.
Treasurer's cheat sheet: A little more about the treasure's job and six-figure salary here.
Federal judge deals setback to Obama Presidential Center plan
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Nam Y. Huh/AP 2017
(Nam Y. Huh/AP 2017)
From the Tribune's Lolly Bowean: "In a major setback to plans to build the Obama Presidential Center on Chicago's South Side lakefront, a federal judge ruled Tuesday that a lawsuit challenging its location can proceed. The ruling to allow the suit to proceed is significant because it could delay construction for months, if not years, and potentially raise the question of whether the $500 million sprawling presidential campus can even be built on lakefront property in Jackson Park." Read more about the judge's decision here.
State police wrongly issued gun license to Aurora killer
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Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune
(Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)
From the Tribune's Stacy St. Clair: "Illinois State Police acknowledged Monday that the agency wrongly issued a gun license to the shooter in the Aurora warehouse murders, but in a detailed statement the agency also suggested that the Aurora Police Department may have failed to do its part to ensure the man no longer owned a weapon." Read the story, including what authorities did — and may not have done — after learning he wasn't eligible for a gun license, here.
Background: The gunman lied in his January 2014 application about his criminal history, and that, along with a second background check, failed to turn up a felony conviction for aggravated assault in Mississippi . Months later — after he had purchased the gun he would end up using in last week's shooting — he applied for a state concealed carry license, and that screening turned up the conviction. That would set in motion a call for him to turn over the gun.
Governor's office reviewing: There's no way to know whether this would have prevented the violence and tragedy that unfolded Friday, in which the gunman — an employee who had just been fired — killed five co-workers and injured five police officers. Gov. Pritzker's office said the shooting and revelations about the screening process are under review.
"The administration is closely reviewing all laws, policies, procedures and resources to determine whether any additional measures can be taken or any operations can be improved. We expect to provide an update on our review shortly," Jordan Abudayyeh, the governor's spokeswoman, wrote in an email.
Pritzker signs minimum wage bill into law
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Zbigniew Bzdak/Chicago Tribune
(Zbigniew Bzdak/Chicago Tribune)
From the Tribune's Dan Petrella: "Low-wage workers across Illinois will ring in 2020 with a $1-per-hour raise after Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Tuesday signed a bill that sets the state's minimum wage on a path to reach $15 per hour by 2025." Read the full story here.
Former Rauner aide steps down as Trump deputy press secretary: Lindsay Walters is leaving the White House for a job at PR giant Edelman, she and the Trump administration confirmed Tuesday. Walters' name has surfaced in recent months amid criticism over Rauner delaying reporting a series of deaths at downstate veterans homes. WBEZ-FM reported that Walters emailed officials at two state agencies during the original 2015 outbreak and said, "I do not think we need to issue a statement to the media. Let's hold and see if we receive any reporter inquiries."
Supreme Court declines to hear ex-Illinois Rep. Schock's corruption case: The Republican resigned from Congress in 2015 amid scrutiny of his lavish spending, including redecorating his Capitol Hill office in the style of the "Downton Abbey" TV series. He tried to get the case against him dismissed, the Supreme Court declined Tuesday to step in, The Associated Press reports. Read the story here.
Illinois among 16 states suing over President Trump's planned border wall: Read the story here.
ldonovan@chicagotribune.com
Twitter @byldonovan
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