Will Sacramento Or St. Louis Become Major League Soccer's Next Franchise?

Ron Burkle, left, rides in the Stanley Cup victory parade in Pittsburgh, PA on Wednesday, June 14, 2017...seated with fellow co-owner and NHL Hall of Famer, Mario Lemieux.  Burkle on Tuesday confirmed his intention to purchase Sacramento Republic FC, which may be the tipping point to transform the USL club into a Major League Soccer franchise. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)ASSOCIATED PRESS

On Tuesday, Sacramento received wonderful news when billionaire financier, Ron Burkle, agreed to buy controlling interest in Sacramento Republic FC.

This announcement, however, begs important questions:

If Major League Soccer sticks to its initial thought process of expanding to 28 teams by the end of 2019, and the league is already at 27 teams, will Sacramento or St. Louis become the 28th franchise?

Alternatively, if both cities are viable candidate expansion locations, if both have satisfied all the criteria for MLS entrance, and if you're confident a 30th team could be announced within the next 18 months, then why not extend invitations to both markets in 2019?

Before answering these questions, let's review the key criteria for admittance into MLS:

Deep pocketed ownership, preferably with local/regional ties.

A soccer-specific stadium, preferably located in/near the urban core.

A local/regional history of strong soccer roots.

Geographically positioned where regional rivalries could naturally ensue.

Prior to October 1st, 2018, neither city was able to satisfy all of these criteria...primarily because they were each devoid of an ownership group that possessed the wealth and stability generally favored by MLS leadership.  However, things have evolved in recent months:

In October 2018, the Taylor family - which owns St. Louis-based Enterprise and has long maintained business and philanthropic ties to the St. Louis region - stepped forward with their willingness to take the financial lead behind a renewed St. Louis bid, buffered by a privately-financed downtown stadium and a majority female ownership group (an MLS first).  

While Burkle's interest in Sacramento soccer became public in June 2018, things became official with yesterday's announcement.

A TALE OF THE TAPE

So let's evaluate each market based on the criteria identified above:

Deep pocketed ownership, preferably with local/regional ties

St. Louis...The Taylor family certainly fits this criteria (estimated worth of $5.8 billion as of July 2016), and are deeply rooted within the St. Louis region.

Sacramento...Mr. Burkle fits this criteria as well (estimated worth of $2 billion as of Feb 2018), and has ties to California.

2. A soccer-specific stadium, preferably located in/near the urban core

St. Louis...While the stadium site has been identified and will be privately financed, construction of the facility is contingent upon St. Louis receiving an MLS franchise.  If a team was awarded in the first half of 2019, time estimates for a completed stadium have suggested that the facility could be ready for the start of the 2022 MLS season.

Sacramento...In July 2017, construction began for their soccer-specific stadium, set in the historic Railyards District.  The projections are that the facility could be ready for the start of the 2021 MLS season.

3. A local/regional history of strong soccer roots

St. Louis...One would be hard-pressed to find a community with stronger historical ties to the sport of soccer than St. Louis.  Numerous people I've spoken with over two decades of living within the St. Louis community have helped educate me on the deep roots the region has with soccer...from CYC leagues dating back 100 years, to the 1950 World Cup team who was largely comprised of St. Louis natives (and upset England in that tournament), to the years of collegiate soccer dominance at Saint Louis University in the 1960s and 1970s.  Their USL team only averaged 4,271 fans per game in 2018, but this is deceptive since the capacity of their current facility is smaller than several other markets.

Sacramento...While not quite on par with St. Louis in this category, I learned much about Sacramento's ties to soccer in speaking with a source intimately familiar with the Sacramento soccer scene.  I learned about decades of amateur leagues in Sacramento spanning numerous cultures (Portuguese, Italian, Korean).  I learned there are nearly 100,000 youth soccer players in the Sacramento area, which is massive number when you consider that's almost double the youth participation levels in the state of Oregon…which obviously has had huge MLS success with the Seattle and Portland franchises.  And their USL team finished 2nd in attendance in 2018 with 11,311 fans per game.

4. Geographically positioned where regional rivalries could naturally ensue.

St. Louis...Existing teams in Sporting Kansas City and the Chicago Fire, along with new expansion team Nashville, are all within a 3.5-4.5 hour drive.  Furthermore, the Columbus Crew (founding team in MLS) and FC Cincinnati (an expansion team starting in 2019) are 5-6 hours drive.

Sacramento...While the San Jose Earthquakes are the only reasonable drive, this will make for a fourth team in California (LA Galaxy, LAFC).

Other considerations:

The St. Louis bid would mean a majority female ownership group, a first for MLS.  This factor could be a tie-breaker, especially in the #metoo era.

It is my sense that there are more political connections between the St. Louis soccer contingent and the power brokers of soccer in America (e.g. MLS executives, as well as influencers from U.S. Soccer and the national soccer media) than there is for Sacramento.

That said, Major League Soccer has previously all-but-guaranteed Sacramento would get a franchise once their ownership matter was resolved...especially since their downtown soccer facility will be ready much sooner than would be true of the St. Louis facility.

PREDICTIONS

First, I believe both Sacramento and St. Louis would be great additions to Major League Soccer.  My June 2018 Forbes post makes a case for Sacramento, and my October 2018 Forbes post makes a case for St. Louis.

And, as long as their current bids do not deviate from present plans, then I believe both cities will be invited to join Major League Soccer by the end of 2019.  Possibly by the 2019 MLS All-Star Game.

That said, here are my franchise allotment predictions for the near-term:

MLS will ultimately expand to 30 teams, and in my view, should stop there for at least a decade to allow the new markets to evolve.

As such, both St. Louis and Sacramento are ultimately destined for MLS inclusion...with Sacramento likely able to begin sooner since their facility will be ready sooner.

If MLS believes both markets have checked all the necessary boxes and criteria (which I believe both cities have at this point), then there is no reason for them not to announce both cities as MLS expansion sites when MLS makes their next formal expansion announcement.  The fact this would yield an odd number of teams (29 teams if both were added together) would only be a short-term phenomenon, and would likely expedite the selection of the 30th and final franchise...likely by the beginning of the 2020 season (with Phoenix, Detroit, and San Diego among the viable alternatives).

However, if MLS is only prepared to announce one city at a time, and plan to do so in the coming months, they will:

A) Opt for Sacramento first IF MLS (i) places greater weight on their stadium being done first, (ii) feels a sense of obligation because of how close Sacramento has been for some time before the last domino (i.e. securing Burkle) fell, and (iii) believes Sacramento has been closer to the finish line for a longer stretch than St. Louis...whose bid was all but lost after the failed public vote in April 2017 (before the Taylors breathed new life into the bid in October 2018);

B) Opt for St. Louis first IF MLS (i) places greater value upon the deep ties the Taylors and Jim Kavanaugh have to St. Louis, (ii) places value on the fact that the St. Louis bid would be the first majority-owned female ownership group in MLS, (iii) recognizes St. Louis' deep historical soccer roots, and (iv) has stronger political ties with the St. Louis soccer community than Sacramento's.